A full understanding of the rules of "game" on the FOREX market in many ways and is the basis for success. The most sensitive issue in this case is the understanding and classification of action quoted a dealer bank or dealing center in order to determine whether outright "gate" and "inhibition" or is it a real market prices and normal reaction. Knowing all the nuances largely avoids unjustified claims and actually reduce some of the standard errors.
Consider the specific situation:
In the information terminal went critical data - certainly an interesting time to enter the market, and most traders immediately begins to ask quotation. What if this happens very often (I mean the situation when she came out really significant news) - trader get quotes delayed or extended spreads and perceives this as a blatant and offensive trickery.
Let us now look at the situation on the other hand - the dealer bank starts at the same time to go to foreign contractors (the situation with 100% of the kitchen and not the withdrawal of orders for foreign markets we shall not consider - usually such offices do not last long) and what he sees - in the most Bourgeois eminent brokers for some time (usually no more than 30 seconds) at the terminal hangs OFF PRICE. All over the world is incorrect to follow the price in the first seconds after the news, but if you insist - you skillfully reflect a spread of 50 points. On the other hand, relying on our 6 years of experience in this market, I can say that very many of those who had still "jump" in the market for news, waiting for deep disappointment - usually always behind this is a serious movement, direction is very often not the same as the initial reaction, and sometimes "counterintuitive" that the small Russian deposits and reckless attitude towards acceptable risk in 90% of the cases led to the loss of money. Of course, for people who gave the world such an interesting game as the "Russian roulette" chance of 1 / 10, even very bad, though, everyone decides everything for himself, we are unlikely to have the right of someone to teach.
Another case - quiet market, the trader asks for the price of non-stop and get a real market (in these moments truly real market tends to conform to the indicative REUTERS or DOW JONES, so that ambiguity can not be), but does not make any deals. What are the dealer commits the bank - if it is under the client starts with the same frequency to go to foreign contractors and do nothing, the bourgeois can put CHOICE, ie to give a quote without spread (say, got a guy - do you determine what you still want to), it would seem worth it - Dolby Bourgeois, receive your choice and enjoy - but from the choice of unwritten ethics dealer can not refuse, refuse once - was named Russian sheep "with all its consequences, in general, about the good prices would have to forget. Of course, choice is not given often - usually just pushed aside a spread, as a signal that the number of requests for a fixed market has exceeded all the correct rules.
From the foregoing, there is a fairly simple question - as an ordinary trader can actually see the real market and that it actually is.
To begin with, that he sees every trader in the window of its information systems (Reuters, Dow, DBC, etc.) - is indicative, ie prices do not mean unconditional obligation of a bank to buy / sell at the stated levels. Among financial institutions, which they throw back their quotes, there are banks and companies of different caliber - from respected market maker to the Russian, and other SNGeshnyh Nauru, Malawi beauties. Again - some enter prices manually, others use different kinds of "machines". "Knobs" as "machines" tend to fail, and prices move in the direction desired for a particular speculator (somewhere there might be big and sweet stopak client, the performance of which can disrupt the 5-7 pips - how to get there not to go). And very importantly how many contractors have one system or another - for example, Reuters provide information about 2,600 banks in the Dow - 1000, DBC - 500. We put all three systems in a number of months and watched the match their prices realities. Night on the franc DBC could die in 20 minutes and, in comparison with Reuters, prices differed by 70 points (for a sufficiently quiet market), with the DOW strange things happen in moments of strong ground motion - an impression that the DOW - an independent brokerage firm and definite moments gives "slightly" out of date the market, then after a certain time schedules lined up in strict accordance with reyterovskimi, suggesting that they knew where there was a market in these moments. However, I will not falsely accuse the DOW - his weight advantages over other systems, at least in terms of analytics and news flow on the FOREX, but the lag in prices (and not only quotations forex, but the indices, etc.) is indeed place.
Since all the same to see a real market?
In the world there are systems that integrate only the largest banks, for example, ELECTRONIC BROKER SYSTEM (EBS), DEALING2000 / 2 (D2). If the bank in these systems exhibits a price, then it means his unconditional commitment to make a deal on it. These systems represent a kind of electronic brokers. A number of large banks are machines that broadcasts the price of these systems. And here is also possible to catch, because machine is not a man. For example, if the market for CHF was 1 second ago 52-55, then 52 and the next bid HIT 15 (old bid, say 20 minutes to put back), then the stupid machine will average between 15 and 55, part the spread of 5 pips each side and will give you the information window 30-40. This market is really in the area of 50-53. During the night of CHF such glitches can last half an hour - hour and at the same screen will be constantly updated, because other banks are like machines.
In the case of EUR, JPY, and GBP the situation described above is rare, so you need to monitor closely the quotes charged by reputable banks. Serious attention is paid to BANK ONE (USA), BARCLAYS (GB), RZB (AUSTRIA), ALLIED (IRISH), DEMIR (TURKISH), SOCIETE GENERALE (FRENCH), ANZ (AUSTRALIA) (unfortunately, this is little help in determining the real market for CHF because as described above).
Nor should we forget about the futures exchange (spot market quotes can be calculated using the forward premium / discount, the data on them are also in information systems). Using this, you completely decide for themselves the problem of the real market for EUR and GBP.
Separately, I would like to stay at the CHF. The fact is that if the spread is recalculated, which exists on futures on such currency in the spot market spreads, we will get 12 points, respectively, it adds uncertainty in assessing the validity of the quotes you (after all, are usually given a standard spread is 5 pips). For these reasons, when determining the level of the market for that currency in the first place to pay attention to the currency of the European team - EUR and to a lesser extent, GBP, and do not respond to the relatively large and abrupt jumps CHF, EUR, if at a standstill. Many traders prefer to play once again in CHF due to the fact that a spread of 5 pips it corresponds to about 3 pips on other currencies, but if we take into account all the above, this advantage is not so clear. Perhaps it is worth sacrificing for the sake of them to feel more relaxed and no doubt once again in the untidiness of your broker?
So, summing up. To determine the real market follow the following sources of prices:
# EUR - SOCIETE GENERALE, ALLIED, BANK ONE, FUTURES
# GBP - BARCLAYS, BANK ONE, FUTURES
# JPY - SOCIETE GENERALE, RZB, ANZ
# CHF - FUTURES or CROSS RATE EUR with
And even if you are fairly active trader (do a few transactions a day), then we recommend the following hours for operations:
# EUR, GBP, CHF - from 10:00 to 22:00
# JPY - c 15:00 to 22:00 and from 03:00 to 08:00
Consider the specific situation:
In the information terminal went critical data - certainly an interesting time to enter the market, and most traders immediately begins to ask quotation. What if this happens very often (I mean the situation when she came out really significant news) - trader get quotes delayed or extended spreads and perceives this as a blatant and offensive trickery.
Let us now look at the situation on the other hand - the dealer bank starts at the same time to go to foreign contractors (the situation with 100% of the kitchen and not the withdrawal of orders for foreign markets we shall not consider - usually such offices do not last long) and what he sees - in the most Bourgeois eminent brokers for some time (usually no more than 30 seconds) at the terminal hangs OFF PRICE. All over the world is incorrect to follow the price in the first seconds after the news, but if you insist - you skillfully reflect a spread of 50 points. On the other hand, relying on our 6 years of experience in this market, I can say that very many of those who had still "jump" in the market for news, waiting for deep disappointment - usually always behind this is a serious movement, direction is very often not the same as the initial reaction, and sometimes "counterintuitive" that the small Russian deposits and reckless attitude towards acceptable risk in 90% of the cases led to the loss of money. Of course, for people who gave the world such an interesting game as the "Russian roulette" chance of 1 / 10, even very bad, though, everyone decides everything for himself, we are unlikely to have the right of someone to teach.
Another case - quiet market, the trader asks for the price of non-stop and get a real market (in these moments truly real market tends to conform to the indicative REUTERS or DOW JONES, so that ambiguity can not be), but does not make any deals. What are the dealer commits the bank - if it is under the client starts with the same frequency to go to foreign contractors and do nothing, the bourgeois can put CHOICE, ie to give a quote without spread (say, got a guy - do you determine what you still want to), it would seem worth it - Dolby Bourgeois, receive your choice and enjoy - but from the choice of unwritten ethics dealer can not refuse, refuse once - was named Russian sheep "with all its consequences, in general, about the good prices would have to forget. Of course, choice is not given often - usually just pushed aside a spread, as a signal that the number of requests for a fixed market has exceeded all the correct rules.
From the foregoing, there is a fairly simple question - as an ordinary trader can actually see the real market and that it actually is.
To begin with, that he sees every trader in the window of its information systems (Reuters, Dow, DBC, etc.) - is indicative, ie prices do not mean unconditional obligation of a bank to buy / sell at the stated levels. Among financial institutions, which they throw back their quotes, there are banks and companies of different caliber - from respected market maker to the Russian, and other SNGeshnyh Nauru, Malawi beauties. Again - some enter prices manually, others use different kinds of "machines". "Knobs" as "machines" tend to fail, and prices move in the direction desired for a particular speculator (somewhere there might be big and sweet stopak client, the performance of which can disrupt the 5-7 pips - how to get there not to go). And very importantly how many contractors have one system or another - for example, Reuters provide information about 2,600 banks in the Dow - 1000, DBC - 500. We put all three systems in a number of months and watched the match their prices realities. Night on the franc DBC could die in 20 minutes and, in comparison with Reuters, prices differed by 70 points (for a sufficiently quiet market), with the DOW strange things happen in moments of strong ground motion - an impression that the DOW - an independent brokerage firm and definite moments gives "slightly" out of date the market, then after a certain time schedules lined up in strict accordance with reyterovskimi, suggesting that they knew where there was a market in these moments. However, I will not falsely accuse the DOW - his weight advantages over other systems, at least in terms of analytics and news flow on the FOREX, but the lag in prices (and not only quotations forex, but the indices, etc.) is indeed place.
Since all the same to see a real market?
In the world there are systems that integrate only the largest banks, for example, ELECTRONIC BROKER SYSTEM (EBS), DEALING2000 / 2 (D2). If the bank in these systems exhibits a price, then it means his unconditional commitment to make a deal on it. These systems represent a kind of electronic brokers. A number of large banks are machines that broadcasts the price of these systems. And here is also possible to catch, because machine is not a man. For example, if the market for CHF was 1 second ago 52-55, then 52 and the next bid HIT 15 (old bid, say 20 minutes to put back), then the stupid machine will average between 15 and 55, part the spread of 5 pips each side and will give you the information window 30-40. This market is really in the area of 50-53. During the night of CHF such glitches can last half an hour - hour and at the same screen will be constantly updated, because other banks are like machines.
In the case of EUR, JPY, and GBP the situation described above is rare, so you need to monitor closely the quotes charged by reputable banks. Serious attention is paid to BANK ONE (USA), BARCLAYS (GB), RZB (AUSTRIA), ALLIED (IRISH), DEMIR (TURKISH), SOCIETE GENERALE (FRENCH), ANZ (AUSTRALIA) (unfortunately, this is little help in determining the real market for CHF because as described above).
Nor should we forget about the futures exchange (spot market quotes can be calculated using the forward premium / discount, the data on them are also in information systems). Using this, you completely decide for themselves the problem of the real market for EUR and GBP.
Separately, I would like to stay at the CHF. The fact is that if the spread is recalculated, which exists on futures on such currency in the spot market spreads, we will get 12 points, respectively, it adds uncertainty in assessing the validity of the quotes you (after all, are usually given a standard spread is 5 pips). For these reasons, when determining the level of the market for that currency in the first place to pay attention to the currency of the European team - EUR and to a lesser extent, GBP, and do not respond to the relatively large and abrupt jumps CHF, EUR, if at a standstill. Many traders prefer to play once again in CHF due to the fact that a spread of 5 pips it corresponds to about 3 pips on other currencies, but if we take into account all the above, this advantage is not so clear. Perhaps it is worth sacrificing for the sake of them to feel more relaxed and no doubt once again in the untidiness of your broker?
So, summing up. To determine the real market follow the following sources of prices:
# EUR - SOCIETE GENERALE, ALLIED, BANK ONE, FUTURES
# GBP - BARCLAYS, BANK ONE, FUTURES
# JPY - SOCIETE GENERALE, RZB, ANZ
# CHF - FUTURES or CROSS RATE EUR with
And even if you are fairly active trader (do a few transactions a day), then we recommend the following hours for operations:
# EUR, GBP, CHF - from 10:00 to 22:00
# JPY - c 15:00 to 22:00 and from 03:00 to 08:00
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